Democracy in Practice is Irrational. People Vote for Symbolic not Practical Reasons.
When I speak to my more idealistically minded friends they tell me that they vote for policies not because those policies will benefit them the most but because they will benefit society as a whole the most. They believe themselves to be members of an enlightened caste who are far more noble than the huddled masses who merely vote in their own self interest.
This view is misguided and an outright misinterpretation of how democracy is intended to work. Only a dictator has any business trying to guess what the overall will of the people is. When it comes to democracy you are supposed to vote for that which benefits you the most. If everyone does this individually then democracy will yield the greatest benefit to the most people.
It is exactly the same principle as the invisible hand espoused by Adam smith in his book the Wealth of Nations:
“It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker, that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest. We address ourselves, not to their humanity but to their self-love, and never talk to them of our own necessities but of their advantages.”
When you don’t vote in your own self interest you are attempting to be a central planner. When you vote for student loan forgiveness even when it will not on net benefit you personally you are assuming that you know more than the sum total of all market participants.
A good example is those who have and don’t have student loans. Those who have student loans would directly benefit from forgiveness. Those who don’t have loans will be harmed, via inflation.
I talk to many people without student loans who are still for forgiveness because of various reasons despite them not having outstanding debt. Perhaps they believe it to be an unfair burden on a certain group of people and that this injustice must be corrected.
The gall a person must have to think they are omniscient enough to perceive if a policy will be an overall benefit for society. I do not know what is best for everyone. I barely know what is best for myself most of the time. I am a humble actor existing within the system.
These do gooders think of themselves as godlike figures looking down from above when in fact they are a small part of an intricate machine. Don’t overcomplicate democracy. Vote for what benefits you directly not what you perceive to benefit society as whole. You are more likely to be wrong in your assessment in the latter than the former. I shall endeavor to provide a few examples.
Think of the soviet planner who believes the people of the USSR need 5 million new refrigerators in a year so he dictates that amount shall be produced. He is very likely to be far off the mark resulting in a mass over or underproduction of goods. The most useful contribution he can make regarding the production of refrigerators is to simply buy one when it suits him. Perhaps for some shiny new feature or for greater energy efficiency. Perhaps his simple broke.
A more interesting example is one’s position on voting to increase or lower taxes and to therefore increase or decrease government benefits. There are many wealthy liberal doctors/lawyers/business owners who wish the government would raise taxes on them as they think they make too much money and that it is unfair. Conservatives often scoff at these people as virtue signalling do gooders.
I have even heard both Warren Buffet and Bill Gates say explicitly in interviews that the capital gains tax rate should be raised as they should be paying higher effective tax rates than their secretaries. I assume they do this mostly for the PR knowing that their public commentary is unlikely to affect public policy as much as their political donations will. After all these two do not always align.
Conversely and even more astounding are the poor conservatives who vote for lower taxes and lower social benefits. If they make less than the average income then logically a raising of taxes and an increase in benefits is likely to benefit them more. If you ask them why they are engaging in this irrational behavior they will give you two main answers.
They will give an ideological answer along the lines of “taxes are unfair and immoral and people should be able to spend their money as they wish.” This is laudable in my opinion but still an instance where they are willingly making an individual sacrifice in order to benefit society as a whole.
The other explanation you are likely to get is that they believe that they too will one day be rich in which case they will benefit from lower taxes in the future. The best example of this is conservative derision of the “death tax” or the inheritance tax which for the fiscal year 2023 has a cutoff of $12.92 million. The amount of conservatives who have more than $12.92 million is under .1% but they overwhelmingly wish to raise the limit or appeal the tax entirely. This may be is my favorite part of the American psyche. We all believe that one day we too shall be rich regardless of how likely it is.
So both sides have large groups of people who vote irrationally against their own self interest. Why do they do this? The best answer I can surmise that people do not vote for practical reasons but instead vote based on their belief template of how they think the world should operate. They view voting as a way to signal their views to the rest of the world. Voting on ideological terms not rational ones. People are voting based on symbols not on outcomes. This fascinates me.
To highlight this even more I want to give a final example. People care most about national, then state, and then finally local elections. When the probability of your vote actually affecting the outcome of any one election is in the exact opposite order. If 1000 people vote in your local election then your single vote has a far greater chance of affecting the outcome compared to a national election where over 100 million people vote. This is of course leaving out the electoral college which truly nullifies the vote of around 80% of citizens.
People vote so that they can sort others into groups that they have something in common with and would therefore like to associate with. “This man voted for trump and therefore has a certain set of beliefs so I wish to avoid this person.” “This man voted for Biden therefore I can conclude he has another set of beliefs so I wish to engage with this person.” People assume this to be a bad thing but I could make a compelling argument it is in fact a public good. People can at least organize themselves efficiently through these signals.
Personally I don’t vote at all as I am not irrational. Why should I take 30 minutes to an hour out of my day to cast a ballet which will certainly not affect the outcome when I can do something that will actually benefit me. I could work an extra hour or I could drink a beer and watch my favorite show with this time instead.
To put some rough numbers to this: would you spend an hour of your time by voting to have a 1 in 1000000000 chance of lowering your annual tax due by $5000. Or would you rather work an extra hour at a $50 an hour rate and make $50. The expected value of the first scenarios is 1/1000000000*$5000 = $.000005. The expected value of the second is 100%*$50 = $50. Even if you only make minimum wage at $7.25 an hour that is still far better than $.000005.
The common response to this argument is “What if everyone felt this way.” If everyone felt this way then your vote would start to matter again but that is not the case. Very few people will heed the wisdom of my arguments. Most will continue to unthinkingly cast their ballet and follow the other lemmings off the cliff. They will jump off a bridge just because their friend did without really thinking about why.
Perhaps people vote for other reasons besides affecting the outcome of an election. If your act of casting a meaningless ballet gives you satisfaction of greater than anything else you could do with that time, then I respect your choice. Just be honest with yourself about it. Value is subjective and people are certainly entitled to value their meaningless vote however they wish.
I hope this has been interesting to you and if anything at least makes you think twice about shaming people who by not voting “choose not to participate in democracy” or who think “because you didn’t vote you don’t have a right to complain.” As if the man who casts a vote truly did any more than the man who didn’t when compared to someone who got 100 people to vote differently by changing their mind on a topic by going door to door in his local community. Or the one who donated $1 million to a campaign. Or the one who simply argued on internet forums in his free time. Being a proud member of this last category I like to think my screaming into the internet void is not entirely wasted. Perhaps this too is irrational but hey at least I enjoy the debate.
If the people shaming me for not voting did not go door to door and change minds or donate large sums to a campaign then they equally failed in their “democratic duty.” I simply tell them to shut the hell up and let me enjoy democracy the way I choose. I choose to have a nice cold beer and watch my favorite show while you wait in line with the average smelly voter. Engaging in your symbolic ritual that is no more likely to affect the outcome than a rain dance is to cause rain.
