Use Narratives to Convince Others but only to Amuse Yourself
Last night I received the news that my grandfather had died. He was my last living grandparent and the second to die in as many months. When I received the call I was watching the show Mad Men. After going for a walk I came back to finish the episode and in the very next scene Gene, the Draper’s last living grandfather, dies. It was a rather tame coincidence but it struck me in a profound way.
Once the coincidence occurred to me my brain immediately searched for other similarities. My grandparents were the stereotypically wholesome 1950s household portrayed in Mad Men. My grandmother stayed home with the kids, minded the house, and cooked the meals. My grandfather had severe dementia and Gene in the show had been suffering from it for years as well. Also Gene’s wife died recently and my grandmother died only a month ago. When you begin to list the similarities it starts to sound so compelling. These simple coincidences created a sense of real meaning to me. You begin to think: How many things had to go right for this series of events to have occurred?
But then after a few elated moments it struck me that one can spin narratives about almost anything. Gene was a veteran and my grandfather, although being a great fan of military history, was not. My grandparents were very much blue collar, my grandfather was a mechanic, and Gene Hofstadt, even though his career is never explicitly mentioned in the show is certainly very white collar. I could also point out that in the show they considered putting Gene in a nursing home but never did as it didn’t seem right. Whereas after much struggling we did put my grandfather in a nursing home. This last one was a particularly dreadful realization.
Simply reading about a meaningful coincidence that happened to someone is likely to seem trivial. It’s easy to be objective from a distance. As my favorite Stalin line goes: “One death is a tragedy, a million deaths are a statistic.” Alas my job is to try to convince you that this subject is meaningful to you as well but perhaps in a roundabout way.
I gave you 4 details to compound the coincidence and 4 to detract from it. Which felt the most compelling? Humans love narratives, and for those of us who are not homo economicus nearly all will side with the former.
When the coincidence originally struck me it was so easy for me to list other similarities. But when I realized how irrational I was being it was far harder to think of the dissimilarities. It was as if my mind didn’t want to destroy the grand edifice of serendipity I had just created. Humans love stories. They speak to us at a far deeper level than facts and figures ever will.
Humans have always been superstitious creatures. We mock the ancients for doing rain dances, I’m sure they would mock us for buying lottery tickets. The baseball player mocks his girlfriend for being into Astrology but he has worn the same pair of socks every game this season. The craps gambler who absolutely must rub his dice on the felt before taking his throw is judged harshly by me. While the next day I will stare at squiggly lines on charts of historical data and try to predict the future. We are all hypocritical fools. But I like to think I am at least honest about it.
When I was younger and first got into into logic and stoicism my aim was to purge these kind of dramatics from my life entirely. To focus on what is real and controllable and not mess with the rest. But I have changed my mind for two reasons. One is to convince others, the other is to amuse myself.
It’s amazing how easy it is to convince people in positions of great power with truly haphazard arguments if you deliver them in a compelling way. “This brilliant, ground breaking, and did I mention earth shattering idea will save the company $5 million annually. It will cost only 500 grand to implement, take a mere six months to complete, and I can do it with only 2 other employees.”
Stated in corporate terms and delivered with a little enthusiasm this will sound shockingly compelling. I provided facts and figures, but they are likely generous estimates. Also, I have failed to state the many other risks involved if the plan goes wrong. Despite this, most of the time in corporate America I will not be overly questioned by the individual who controls the pursestrings.
This is because he is an overworked executive and does not have time to ask me the 100 questions my proposal really deserves. He must get by on heuristics. Do I seem to know what I’m saying? Do I seem honest? Do I seem confident but not too confident? If you pass these simple tests it is amazing and often alarming how much benefit of the doubt you will be given.
As politicians and lawyers know all too well: when the facts are on your side, argue the facts, and when they are not, appeal to people’s emotions. When your arguments are weak use analogies and narrative as they provide reassuring simplicity to the listener. When your arguments are strong overlay a sexy narrative with rhetorical flourishes as well.
But narratives shouldn’t only be a weapon to be deployed against others. They can also be highly amusing, just don’t take them too seriously. It’s fun to be superstitious. It’s fun to get a little mystical.
Do you have any idea how fun it is to be at the roulette table with your buddies, realize the last 5 spins were all odd and go “Surely it must be an even next” and then bet it. Do you know what it’s like to hit 3 homers in a game and then realize it’s because of the new socks you are wearing. Do you know how fun it is to draw lines on a chart and explain why copper prices are surely going much higher. Perhaps the last one is not everyone’s cup of tea.
Humans love pattern matching and it could be argued it is the entire basis of how we measure intelligence. Look at any IQ test. When pattern matching is rigorous and deliberate, as in a written test, it is boring. But when it is ad hoc, as in observing clouds, it can be remarkably fun.
In summary, use narrative and coincidence liberally when dealing with others but when it comes to yourself employ them judiciously and only for your amusement. It may be your undoing if you play these same tricks on yourself in matters of importance for you are the most vulnerable.
